Fall 2025: Bay Area Real Estate Market

Markets are leaning toward a Fed rate cut this week, with odds north of 90%. Financing costs have already begun nudging lower and could ease further if the Fed trims the policy rate as expected. Mortgage benchmarks confirm the turn: Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average dropped 15 bps this week, the biggest one-week move in a year, and the Mortgage Bankers Association shows the 30-year down to ~6.49%, spurring the strongest application week since 2022. Even mainstream outlets are preparing consumers for how a Fed trim flows through to mortgages via the 10-year Treasury and MBS spreads. Bottom line: A modest cut won’t make homes “cheap,” but it does add affordability “basis points” just as fall inventory rotates and days on market lengthen in several sub-markets.

What Your Local Data Says (August 2025)

Santa Clara County (San Jose, West SJ, Sunnyvale, etc.)

• Single-family: Median up to $1.88M (YoY), 1.4 months of inventory, selling at ~102% of list; DOM up into the mid-20s. Still competitive, but cooler than last year.
• Condo/Townhome: Median $930K (down YoY), 2.8 months of inventory, ~100% of list; DOM stretching into the 30s. Use case: Move-up buyers can trade into SFHs before rates compress further; entry buyers can find leverage in the condo segment.

San Mateo County

• Single-family: Median $1.90M, ~1.7 months of supply, ~103% sale-to-list, ~27 DOM.
• Condo/Townhome: Median $905K, 3.1 months supply, ~98% sale-to-list, ~52 DOM. Use case: Price it right and stage—overpricing backfires, especially for condos where buyers have choice.

Alameda County

• Single-family: Median $1.26M, ~2.0 months supply, ~104% sale-to-list, ~29 DOM.
• Condo/Townhome: Median $650K, ~3.6–4.1 months supply, ~100% sale-to-list drifting to ~99%, ~45 DOM. Use case: Well-priced SFHs still draw bids; condo sellers must meet the market on price and presentation.

San Francisco County

• Single-family: Median $1.50M (slightly down YoY), ~1.3 months supply, ~113–114% sale-to-list, ~31 DOM.
• Condo/Townhome: Median $1.04M (up YoY), ~3.2 months supply, ~99% sale-to-list, ~68 DOM. Use case: SFHs still spark bidding wars; condos require surgical pricing and standout marketing.

Santa Cruz County

• Single-family: Median $1.37–1.40M (up YoY), ~3.7 months supply, ~98–99% sale-to-list, ~48 DOM.
• Condo/Townhome: Median $895K (up YoY), ~4.8–5.3 months supply, ~98–99% sale-to-list, ~39–53 DOM. Use case: Balanced to buyer-tilted dynamics—negotiation room exists, especially on time-worn listings.