How the Rate Cut Narrative Intersects With Your Counties

If the Federal Reserve trims policy rates and bond yields drift lower, mortgage rates could ease down from the mid-6% range. Don’t expect a dramatic cliff-drop, but even a modest decline could be enough to bring some sidelined buyers back into the market.

We’re already seeing early signs: mortgage applications jumped as soon as rates dipped toward 6.5%—a textbook example of “demand at the margin.”

What this means for Bay Area counties:

• Condos in San Mateo, Alameda, and San Francisco: With higher days on market and more inventory, these segments are most likely to see a pickup in activity first.

• Entry-level single-family homes in the South Bay: Softer price points and moderate supply make this tier especially sensitive to small rate improvements.

• Luxury and upper-tier properties: Expect pressure to re-intensify later, once lower tiers absorb demand and buyers trade up.

In short, a modest rate cut can re-ignite momentum—but its effects will roll out unevenly across price points and property types.